Premier League · England · Regular Season - 16

Manchester United–Bournemouth

4–4

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 15 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Manchester UnitedA. Diallo
40'BournemouthA. Semenyo (assist: A. Smith)
45'Manchester UnitedCasemiro (assist: Bruno Fernandes)
46'BournemouthEvanilson (assist: M. Tavernier)
52'BournemouthM. Tavernier
77'Manchester UnitedBruno Fernandes

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Bournemouth
25	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	9
18	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
393	Passes	300
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.70 · Bournemouth 1.33. On the pitch: 4-4.
Shots Manchester United 25 · Bournemouth 14; on target 9 and 9.
Manchester United kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Hooper→

4.27

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Manchester United, 1.28 for Bournemouth.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,299 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win54.6%

Draw23.0%

Bournemouth to win22.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Manchester United lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time42.6%

Bournemouth lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Bournemouth ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1299 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 9Actual: 15
Bournemouth: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Manchester United: at least 5Actual: 5
Bournemouth: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.70

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bournemouth's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bournemouth score1.33

Attack: Bournemouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%2–110.6%2–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.