Premier League · England · Regular Season - 14

Arsenal–Brentford

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Emirates Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'ArsenalMikel Merino (assist: B. White)
90'ArsenalB. Saka (assist: Mikel Merino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arsenal		Brentford
15	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
542	Passes	333
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arsenal 1.92 · Brentford 0.87. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arsenal 15 · Brentford 6; on target 7 and 1.
Arsenal kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

T. Harrington→

3.97

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.0%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Arsenal, 0.74 for Brentford.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Arsenal win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,273 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arsenal to win67.0%

Draw21.3%

Brentford to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Arsenal lead at half-time50.2%

Level at half-time37.8%

Brentford lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Arsenal ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Brentford ahead49.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1273 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arsenal: at least 9Actual: 7
Brentford: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Arsenal: at least 6Actual: 4
Brentford: at least 2Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arsenal score1.92

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brentford score0.87

Attack: Brentford score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.4%1–012.4%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.