Premier League · England · Regular Season - 12

Manchester United–Everton

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 24 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'EvertonI. Gueye · red card
29'EvertonK. Dewsbury-Hall (assist: J. Garner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Everton
25	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	1
17	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
635	Passes	281
558	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.58 · Everton 1.17. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Manchester United 25 · Everton 3; on target 6 and 1.
Manchester United kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

T. Harrington→

4.00

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Manchester United, 1.09 for Everton.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win51.7%

Draw25.7%

Everton to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Manchester United lead at half-time34.4%

Level at half-time43.7%

Everton lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Everton ahead65.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 9Actual: 12
Everton: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Manchester United: at least 5Actual: 9
Everton: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.58

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Everton score1.17

Attack: Everton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.