Premier League · England · Regular Season - 11

Crystal Palace–Brighton

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Selhurst Park, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Brighton
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
373	Passes	503
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.81 · Brighton 1.28. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Crystal Palace 10 · Brighton 7; on target 2 and 3.
Brighton kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

T. Robinson→

4.37

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Crystal Palace to win”. Second comes “Brighton to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Crystal Palace, 1.30 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,245 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win40.4%

Draw27.4%

Brighton to win32.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Crystal Palace lead at half-time41.8%

Level at half-time40.5%

Brighton lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Crystal Palace ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Brighton ahead58.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1245 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Crystal Palace: at least 10Actual: 10
Brighton: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 4
Brighton: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.81

Attack: Crystal Palace score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score1.28

Attack: Brighton score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.6%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.