Benfica–Aarhus

3–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'BenficaRafa Silva
31'BenficaLeandro Barreiro
36'AarhusS. Jorgensen (assist: Jacob Andersen)
45'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Aarhus
0	Shots	0
13	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
11	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 2.10 · Aarhus 1.08. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Benfica 0 · Aarhus 0; on target 13 and 1.
Benfica kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

M. Guida→

3.69

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.1%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Benfica, 1.08 for Aarhus.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,911 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win61.1%

Draw19.9%

Aarhus to win19.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score2.10

Attack: Benfica score 74% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aarhus score1.08

Attack: Aarhus score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%2–09.2%1–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.