UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Getafe–FK Partizan

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'GetafeE. Ünal (assist: J. Mojica)
43'FK PartizanD. Seck (assist: Jeh)
68'GetafeA. Abqar · red card
87'GetafeA. Garcia (assist: M. Satriano)
90'GetafeJ. Mojica (assist: M. Satriano)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Getafe		FK Partizan
12	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
493	Passes	313
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Getafe 1.50 · FK Partizan 0.70. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Getafe 12 · FK Partizan 8; on target 5 and 1.
Getafe kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Treimanis→

5.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.8%: “Getafe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Getafe, 0.70 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Getafe win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,629 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Getafe to win56.8%

Draw25.4%

FK Partizan to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Getafe score1.50

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score0.70

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Getafe concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.9%2–012.4%1–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.