UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

SC Braga–Austria Vienna

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'SC BragaPau Víctor (penalty)
88'SC BragaD. Rodrigues (assist: Mario Dorgeles)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Austria Vienna
14	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
598	Passes	418
516	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.39 · Austria Vienna 0.73. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots SC Braga 14 · Austria Vienna 5; on target 5 and 1.
SC Braga kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

I. Barbara→

3.39

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.5%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.39 for SC Braga, 0.73 for Austria Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 90.2% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,907 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win74.5%

Draw15.7%

Austria Vienna to win9.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.39

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Austria Vienna score0.73

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–010.7%3–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.