UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Rangers–FK Jablonec

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'RangersR. Naderi (assist: D. Yokota)
74'RangersC. Devlin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rangers		FK Jablonec
13	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
492	Passes	369
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rangers 2.08 · FK Jablonec 1.01. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Rangers 13 · FK Jablonec 5; on target 3 and 4.
Rangers kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Barbu→

4.38

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.2%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Rangers, 1.01 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (1X — Rangers win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,928 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rangers to win62.2%

Draw19.9%

FK Jablonec to win17.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rangers score2.08

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.01

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%2–09.8%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.