UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Heart Of Midlothian–Rapid Vienna

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Rapid ViennaS. Raux-Yao (assist: M. Seidl)
56'Heart Of MidlothianS. Raux-Yao (own goal)
62'Heart Of MidlothianJ. Wilson (assist: Cláudio Braga)
79'Rapid ViennaN. Wurmbrand (assist: N. Bajlicz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Rapid Vienna
17	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
418	Passes	651
346	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.61 · Rapid Vienna 0.93. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 17 · Rapid Vienna 9; on target 4 and 6.
Rapid Vienna kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

M. Lukjancukas→

2.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.93 for Rapid Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,545 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win53.6%

Draw24.2%

Rapid Vienna to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.61

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rapid Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rapid Vienna score0.93

Attack: Rapid Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%1–111.5%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.