UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Panathinaikos–Hradec Králové

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'PanathinaikosA. Tetteh
61'PanathinaikosA. Tetteh (assist: P. Chirivella)
89'Hradec KrálovéA. Umar (assist: F. Cihak)
90'Hradec KrálovéA. Umar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		Hradec Králové
0	Shots	0
9	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
22%	Possession	78%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 1.58 · Hradec Králové 0.98. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Panathinaikos 0 · Hradec Králové 0; on target 9 and 3.
Hradec Králové kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

J. Brisard→

3.84

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Panathinaikos, 0.98 for Hradec Králové.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Panathinaikos win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win51.6%

Draw24.5%

Hradec Králové to win23.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.58

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hradec Králové score0.98

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.6%1–111.6%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.