UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

FC Lugano–Maccabi Tel Aviv

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'FC LuganoK. Behrens (assist: Y. Cimignani)
47'Maccabi Tel AvivI. Shahar (assist: R. Revivo)
54'FC LuganoA. Grgic (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Lugano		Maccabi Tel Aviv
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
403	Passes	562
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Lugano 1.62 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.45. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Lugano 11 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 11; on target 2 and 1.
Maccabi Tel Aviv kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Milanovic→

3.64

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “FC Lugano to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for FC Lugano, 1.45 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,684 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Lugano to win42.0%

Draw23.2%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win34.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Lugano score1.62

Attack: FC Lugano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.45

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Lugano concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.45 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%2–18.8%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.