UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Gent–Hibernian

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Hibernian
0	Shots	0
3	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.72 · Hibernian 0.98. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Gent 0 · Hibernian 0; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.42

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Gent, 0.98 for Hibernian.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — Gent win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win55.3%

Draw23.1%

Hibernian to win21.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.72

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hibernian's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hibernian score0.98

Attack: Hibernian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.9%1–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.