UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Atalanta–Hapoel Tel Aviv

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		Hapoel Tel Aviv
9	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
707	Passes	423
648	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 1.90 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.65. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Atalanta 9 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 7; on target 5 and 4.
Atalanta kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

J. Alberola→

3.46

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.6%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Atalanta, 0.65 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (1X — Atalanta win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,367 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win67.6%

Draw20.2%

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win12.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score1.90

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score0.65

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.2%2–014.1%1–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.