OFI–CSKA Sofia

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'OFIT. Fountas
51'OFIT. Fountas (penalty)
81'CSKA SofiaM. Brahimi · red card
90'OFIL. Dickmann (assist: D. Nikolaou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFI		CSKA Sofia
0	Shots	0
4	Shots on target	6
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFI 0.94 · CSKA Sofia 1.80. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots OFI 0 · CSKA Sofia 0; on target 4 and 6.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Jovanovic→

3.43

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for OFI, 1.80 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win).
These values were computed from 1,859 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFI to win19.7%

Draw22.3%

CSKA Sofia to win58.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFI score0.94

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.80

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.80 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–112.0%1–110.6%0–210.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.