UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Gornik Zabrze–Monaco

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'MonacoM. Biereth (assist: M. Detourbet)
51'MonacoL. Camara
53'Gornik ZabrzeE. Prekop (assist: Erik Janža)
58'MonacoParis Josua Brunner (assist: S. Idumbo-Muzambo)
74'Gornik ZabrzeS. Liseth (assist: P. Bernardo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Monaco
17	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
384	Passes	388
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.32 · Monaco 1.58. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 17 · Monaco 14; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

M. Matosa→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Monaco to win”. Second comes “Gornik Zabrze to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.58 for Monaco.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,552 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win32.2%

Draw23.9%

Monaco to win43.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.32

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monaco score1.58

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%0–19.1%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.