FK Crvena Zvezda–Plzen

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Ivanic (assist: T. Elsnik)
53'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Ivanic (assist: T. Elsnik)
89'FK Crvena ZvezdaA. Katai (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Plzen
0	Shots	0
7	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.46 · Plzen 1.14. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 0 · Plzen 0; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.46 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.14 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,152 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win66.4%

Draw17.4%

Plzen to win16.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.46

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 114% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.14

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.14 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.4%2–08.3%3–17.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.