UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

PAOK–Brann

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'BrannK. Eriksen (assist: J. Soltvedt)
80'PAOKA. Baba (assist: T. Louchet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Brann
23	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
346	Passes	478
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 1.94 · Brann 1.13. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots PAOK 23 · Brann 6; on target 6 and 1.
Brann kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.60

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

100

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “Brann to win” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for PAOK, 1.13 for Brann.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,907 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win56.5%

Draw21.3%

Brann to win22.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score1.94

Attack: PAOK score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brann score1.13

Attack: Brann score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%1–19.8%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.