Lech Poznan–FC Thun

7–0

HT 5–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Lech PoznanP. Walemark
20'Lech PoznanA. Sayyadmanesh (assist: P. Rodriguez)
25'Lech PoznanP. Walemark (assist: M. Gurgul)
31'Lech PoznanM. Skrzypczak (assist: A. Kozubal)
45'Lech PoznanR. Murawski (assist: P. Rodriguez)
47'Lech PoznanD. Hakans

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lech Poznan		FC Thun
0	Shots	0
11	Shots on target	4
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 2.90 · FC Thun 1.02. On the pitch: 7-0.
Shots Lech Poznan 0 · FC Thun 0; on target 11 and 4.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Gishamer→

4.56

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.0%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.90 for Lech Poznan, 1.02 for FC Thun.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — Lech Poznan win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,092 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win76.0%

Draw13.6%

FC Thun to win10.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

(assist: A. Sayyadmanesh)

79'Lech PoznanR. Gumny (assist: M. Gurgul)

8	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lech Poznan win or draw89.5%

12 — any result other than a draw86.4%

X2 — draw or FC Thun win24.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score2.90

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Thun's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Thun score1.02

Attack: FC Thun score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–18.5%2–08.4%3–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2092 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.