Trabzonspor–Ferencvarosi TC

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Ferencvarosi TCK. Zachariassen (assist: O. Nagy)
90+6'TrabzonsporChibuike Nwaiwu · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Ferencvarosi TC
0	Shots	0
3	Shots on target	4
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.24 · Ferencvarosi TC 1.46. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Trabzonspor 0 · Ferencvarosi TC 0; on target 3 and 4.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

I. Pajac→

2.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “Trabzonspor to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Trabzonspor, 1.46 for Ferencvarosi TC.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,193 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win32.4%

Draw24.9%

Ferencvarosi TC to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

3	Fouls	24

0	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.24

Attack: Trabzonspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.46

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%0–110.2%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.