UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Tromso–Brighton

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tromso		Brighton
5	Shots	25
1	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	16
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	11
4	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
309	Passes	641
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tromso 1.20 · Brighton 1.64. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Tromso 5 · Brighton 25; on target 1 and 6.
Brighton kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

E. Malcevs→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “Tromso to win” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Tromso, 1.64 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,615 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tromso to win28.4%

Draw23.7%

Brighton to win47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tromso score1.20

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score1.64

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%0–19.9%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.