UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

FC Nordsjaelland–FC ST. Gallen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'FC NordsjaellandN. Rojkjaer (assist: Ibrahim Adel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		FC ST. Gallen
12	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
471	Passes	396
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 2.28 · FC ST. Gallen 1.18. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 12 · FC ST. Gallen 19; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

O. Berka→

3.80

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “FC ST. Gallen to win” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.28 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.18 for FC ST. Gallen.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win62.3%

Draw18.8%

FC ST. Gallen to win18.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	21

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score2.28

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score1.18

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.6%1–18.2%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.