Mjallby AIF–Red Bull Salzburg

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Red Bull SalzburgTom Pettersson (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mjallby AIF		Red Bull Salzburg
0	Shots	0
1	Shots on target	8
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
31%	Possession	69%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mjallby AIF 1.45 · Red Bull Salzburg 1.64. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Mjallby AIF 0 · Red Bull Salzburg 0; on target 1 and 8.
Red Bull Salzburg kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

M. Balakin→

4.30

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Red Bull Salzburg to win”. Second comes “Mjallby AIF to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Mjallby AIF, 1.64 for Red Bull Salzburg.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,761 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mjallby AIF to win34.4%

Draw23.1%

Red Bull Salzburg to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mjallby AIF score1.45

Attack: Mjallby AIF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.64

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Mjallby AIF's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%1–28.9%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.