Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Kasımpaşa–Galatasaray

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'KasımpaşaAdrian Benedyczak (assist: F. Diabate)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kasımpaşa		Galatasaray
5	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
276	Passes	666
212	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kasımpaşa 0.93 · Galatasaray 1.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Kasımpaşa 5 · Galatasaray 12; on target 3 and 5.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

A. D. Kayatepe→

4.21

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “Kasımpaşa to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Kasımpaşa, 1.67 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,337 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kasımpaşa to win30.6%

Draw25.7%

Galatasaray to win43.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time8.3%

Level at half-time36.4%

Galatasaray lead at half-time55.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa ahead or level44.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead91.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1336 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kasımpaşa: at least 12Actual: 9
Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Kasımpaşa: at least 3Actual: 2
Galatasaray: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kasımpaşa score0.93

Attack: Kasımpaşa score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.94

Attack: Galatasaray score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.