Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Kayserispor–Konyaspor

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'KonyasporE. C. Yagmur
49'KayserisporL. Benes (assist: J. Brenet)
74'KayserisporF. Chalov (assist: J. Brenet)
87'KonyasporR. Bazoer · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kayserispor		Konyaspor
15	Shots	16
10	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
384	Passes	392
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kayserispor 1.37 · Konyaspor 1.35. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Kayserispor 15 · Konyaspor 16; on target 10 and 3.

Referee

M. Dakan→

4.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “Kayserispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Kayserispor, 1.21 for Konyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Kayserispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,336 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kayserispor to win52.6%

Draw24.2%

Konyaspor to win23.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kayserispor lead at half-time17.6%

Level at half-time45.8%

Konyaspor lead at half-time36.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Kayserispor ahead or level63.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Konyaspor ahead82.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1335 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kayserispor: at least 12Actual: 10
Konyaspor: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Kayserispor: at least 5Actual: 4
Konyaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kayserispor score1.37

Attack: Kayserispor score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Konyaspor score1.35

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–110.7%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.