Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Samsunspor–Göztepe

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'SamsunsporT. Coulibaly (assist: Marius)
81'GöztepeHeliton · red card
85'SamsunsporE. Tavsan (assist: Marius)
89'SamsunsporMarius (assist: E. Tavsan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Samsunspor		Göztepe
14	Shots	22
9	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
0	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
390	Passes	226
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Samsunspor 1.30 · Göztepe 1.25. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Samsunspor 14 · Göztepe 22; on target 9 and 5.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

U. Ozturk→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “Samsunspor to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Samsunspor, 1.60 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,334 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Samsunspor to win30.1%

Draw26.4%

Göztepe to win43.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Samsunspor lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time44.3%

Göztepe lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Samsunspor ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1333 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Samsunspor: at least 10Actual: 10
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Samsunspor: at least 5
Göztepe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Samsunspor score1.30

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.25

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.