Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Rizespor–Beşiktaş

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'RizesporAli Sowe (assist: Modibo Sagnan)
31'RizesporAli Sowe (assist: Adedire Mebude)
55'BeşiktaşJota Silva (assist: O. Kokcu)
62'BeşiktaşV. Cerny (assist: J. Olaitan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rizespor		Beşiktaş
22	Shots	23
5	Shots on target	9
17	Shots inside the box	15
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
396	Passes	463
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rizespor 1.26 · Beşiktaş 1.58. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Rizespor 22 · Beşiktaş 23; on target 5 and 9.

Referee

A. Albayrak→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “Rizespor to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Rizespor, 1.80 for Beşiktaş.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,332 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rizespor to win32.1%

Draw24.5%

Beşiktaş to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Rizespor lead at half-time20.5%

Level at half-time41.9%

Beşiktaş lead at half-time37.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Rizespor ahead or level62.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Beşiktaş ahead79.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1331 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rizespor: at least 12Actual: 7
Beşiktaş: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Rizespor: at least 4Actual: 8
Beşiktaş: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rizespor score1.26

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.58

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–29.7%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.