Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Kasımpaşa

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'KasımpaşaAdrian Benedyczak (assist: F. Diabate)
12'KasımpaşaAdrian Benedyczak (penalty)
42'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Adama Malouda Traoré (assist: Oğulcan Ülgün)
45'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Dimitris Goutas (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)
70'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Franco Tongya (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Kasımpaşa
14	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
357	Passes	228
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.34 · Kasımpaşa 1.14. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14 · Kasımpaşa 10; on target 8 and 4.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

C. Aydin→

4.64

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.08 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,323 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win41.5%

Draw29.4%

Kasımpaşa to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	24

4	Yellow cards	10

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1322 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 11
Kasımpaşa: at least 13Actual: 24

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 5
Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.34

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.14

Attack: Kasımpaşa score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.2%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.