Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Konyaspor–Fenerbahçe

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'FenerbahçeFred (assist: K. Akturkoglu)
57'FenerbahçeA. Brown (assist: K. Akturkoglu)
72'FenerbahçeFred (assist: M. Müldür)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Konyaspor		Fenerbahçe
10	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	11
7	Shots inside the box	13
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
355	Passes	494
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Konyaspor 1.13 · Fenerbahçe 1.77. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Konyaspor 10 · Fenerbahçe 23; on target 2 and 11.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Karaoglan→

5.22

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Konyaspor, 1.89 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 1,323 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Konyaspor to win19.1%

Draw23.8%

Fenerbahçe to win57.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Konyaspor lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time34.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Konyaspor ahead or level65.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1322 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Konyaspor: at least 13Actual: 16
Fenerbahçe: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Konyaspor: at least 4Actual: 6
Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Konyaspor score1.13

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.77

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–211.0%0–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.