Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Başakşehir–Samsunspor

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BaşakşehirEldor Shomurodov (penalty)
43'BaşakşehirYusuf Sarı (assist: Eldor Shomurodov)
78'BaşakşehirAbbosbek Fayzullaev

Match statistics

Match statistics
Başakşehir		Samsunspor
19	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
303	Passes	455
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Başakşehir 1.63 · Samsunspor 1.13. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Başakşehir 19 · Samsunspor 9; on target 6 and 1.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

G. Hasova→

5.42

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Başakşehir to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Başakşehir, 1.19 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Başakşehir win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,323 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Başakşehir to win53.7%

Draw24.0%

Samsunspor to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Başakşehir lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time40.8%

Samsunspor lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Başakşehir ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1322 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Başakşehir: at least 11Actual: 13
Samsunspor: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Başakşehir: at least 4Actual: 2
Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Başakşehir score1.63

Attack: Başakşehir score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.13

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.8%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.