Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Antalyaspor–Alanyaspor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antalyaspor		Alanyaspor
7	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
427	Passes	337
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antalyaspor 1.15 · Alanyaspor 1.30. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Antalyaspor 7 · Alanyaspor 8; on target 1 and 2.
Antalyaspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Karaoglan→

4.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “Alanyaspor to win”. Second comes “Antalyaspor to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Antalyaspor, 1.29 for Alanyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,319 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antalyaspor to win33.8%

Draw29.0%

Alanyaspor to win37.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Antalyaspor lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time44.2%

Alanyaspor lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Antalyaspor ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Alanyaspor ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1318 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antalyaspor: at least 13Actual: 10
Alanyaspor: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Antalyaspor: at least 3Actual: 3
Alanyaspor: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antalyaspor score1.15

Attack: Antalyaspor score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Alanyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alanyaspor score1.30

Attack: Alanyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.6%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.