Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Samsunspor–Galatasaray

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'GalatasarayYunus Akgün (assist: V. Osimhen)
22'SamsunsporMarius (assist: Yalçın Kayan)
57'SamsunsporC. Ndiaye (assist: Marius)
63'GalatasarayG. Guvenc · red card
71'SamsunsporMarius (assist: Yalçın Kayan)
82'SamsunsporC. Ndiaye

Match statistics

Match statistics
Samsunspor		Galatasaray
13	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
7	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
396	Passes	318
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Samsunspor 1.04 · Galatasaray 1.71. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Samsunspor 13 · Galatasaray 13; on target 8 and 3.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Coskunses→

5.22

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Samsunspor, 1.97 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 1,316 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Samsunspor to win19.7%

Draw23.2%

Galatasaray to win57.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Samsunspor lead at half-time10.6%

Level at half-time40.9%

Galatasaray lead at half-time48.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Samsunspor ahead or level51.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead89.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1315 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Samsunspor: at least 12Actual: 15
Galatasaray: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Galatasaray: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Samsunspor score1.04

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.71

Attack: Galatasaray score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–210.9%0–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.