Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Trabzonspor–Göztepe

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Papara Park, Trabzon

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'GöztepeJuan Santos da Silva (assist: Arda Kurtulan)
42'TrabzonsporMustafa Eskihellaç · red card
90'TrabzonsporUmut Nayir (assist: M. Lovik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Göztepe
10	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
396	Passes	294
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.56 · Göztepe 1.18. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Trabzonspor 10 · Göztepe 18; on target 4 and 2.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

O. Ergun→

4.80

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Trabzonspor, 1.08 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Trabzonspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,316 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win54.4%

Draw24.6%

Göztepe to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	22

6	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Trabzonspor lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time42.5%

Göztepe lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Trabzonspor ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1315 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Trabzonspor: at least 9Actual: 14
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 22

Corners

Trabzonspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Göztepe: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.56

Attack: Trabzonspor score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.18

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%2–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.