Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Gaziantep FK–Beşiktaş

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'BeşiktaşT. Djalo (assist: K. Asllani)
22'BeşiktaşK. Asllani (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gaziantep FK		Beşiktaş
17	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
317	Passes	604
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gaziantep FK 1.15 · Beşiktaş 1.71. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Gaziantep FK 17 · Beşiktaş 12; on target 4 and 5.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. B. Taskinsoy→

5.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “Gaziantep FK to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Gaziantep FK, 1.64 for Beşiktaş.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,315 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gaziantep FK to win32.6%

Draw25.8%

Beşiktaş to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time42.1%

Beşiktaş lead at half-time34.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK ahead or level65.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Beşiktaş ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1314 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gaziantep FK: at least 12Actual: 5
Beşiktaş: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 8
Beşiktaş: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.15

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.71

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.