Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Samsunspor–Beşiktaş

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'SamsunsporC. Holse (assist: O. Ntcham)
56'SamsunsporT. Coulibaly (assist: Emre Kılınç)
90'BeşiktaşK. Asllani (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Samsunspor		Beşiktaş
14	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	7
5	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
465	Passes	480
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Samsunspor 1.17 · Beşiktaş 1.50. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Samsunspor 14 · Beşiktaş 14; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

G. Hasova→

5.39

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “Samsunspor to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Samsunspor, 1.67 for Beşiktaş.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,302 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Samsunspor to win29.7%

Draw25.8%

Beşiktaş to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	4

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Samsunspor lead at half-time18.3%

Level at half-time41.4%

Beşiktaş lead at half-time40.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Samsunspor ahead or level59.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Beşiktaş ahead81.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1301 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Samsunspor: at least 13Actual: 17
Beşiktaş: at least 11Actual: 4

Corners

Samsunspor: at least 5Actual: 1
Beşiktaş: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Samsunspor score1.17

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.50

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.1%2–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.