Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Galatasaray

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'GalatasarayM. Icardi (assist: Yunus Akgün)
35'GalatasarayYunus Akgün (assist: Gabriel Sara)
66'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Niang (assist: Adama Malouda Traoré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Galatasaray
11	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
329	Passes	421
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.79 · Galatasaray 2.05. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 11 · Galatasaray 9; on target 3 and 2.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

B. Kolak→

4.94

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.4%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 2.21 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 1,300 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win12.0%

Draw19.6%

Galatasaray to win68.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time8.8%

Level at half-time39.0%

Galatasaray lead at half-time52.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level47.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead91.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1299 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 11Actual: 11
Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 3Actual: 2
Galatasaray: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score0.79

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score2.05

Attack: Galatasaray score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.5%1–210.8%1–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.