Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Kocaelispor–Göztepe

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'GöztepeJanderson (assist: Efkan Bekiroğlu)
77'KocaelisporShow · red card
90'KocaelisporS. Dursun (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Göztepe
21	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
441	Passes	192
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.02 · Göztepe 1.18. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Kocaelispor 21 · Göztepe 7; on target 4 and 3.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

A. Yilmaz→

3.58

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “Kocaelispor to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Kocaelispor, 1.16 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 69.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,299 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win31.6%

Draw31.0%

Göztepe to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	23

5	Yellow cards	7

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Kocaelispor lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time48.0%

Göztepe lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1298 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 11Actual: 11
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 23

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4
Göztepe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.02

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.18

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.9%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.