Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Fatih Karagümrük–Eyüpspor

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Fatih KaragümrükSerginho (assist: D. Verde)
39'EyüpsporM. Kranevitter (own goal)
44'EyüpsporM. Legowski (assist: Umut Meraş)
78'EyüpsporSeyfettin Anıl Yaşar · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Eyüpspor
12	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
497	Passes	320
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.45 · Eyüpspor 1.12. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 12 · Eyüpspor 6; on target 3 and 4.
Fatih Karagümrük kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

C. Aydin→

4.80

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “Fatih Karagümrük to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Fatih Karagümrük, 0.88 for Eyüpspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — Fatih Karagümrük win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,298 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win55.3%

Draw26.2%

Eyüpspor to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–2

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time47.3%

Eyüpspor lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Eyüpspor ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1297 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 14
Eyüpspor: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 6
Eyüpspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.45

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.12

Attack: Eyüpspor score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–012.6%2–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.