Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Fenerbahçe–Rizespor

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'RizesporAli Sowe (assist: V. Mihaila)
72'RizesporSamet Akaydın · red card
80'FenerbahçeTalisca (penalty)
86'FenerbahçeK. Akturkoglu (assist: A. Musaba)
90'RizesporModibo Sagnan (assist: Yahia Fofana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fenerbahçe		Rizespor
15	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
442	Passes	298
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fenerbahçe 2.20 · Rizespor 0.84. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Fenerbahçe 15 · Rizespor 6; on target 5 and 3.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. D. Kayatepe→

4.18

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.8%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.43 for Fenerbahçe, 0.90 for Rizespor.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Fenerbahçe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,296 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fenerbahçe to win71.8%

Draw17.6%

Rizespor to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time47.8%

Level at half-time38.2%

Rizespor lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fenerbahçe ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Rizespor ahead52.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1295 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fenerbahçe: at least 11Actual: 14
Rizespor: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Fenerbahçe: at least 6Actual: 7
Rizespor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score2.20

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rizespor score0.84

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.5%3–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.