Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Rizespor–Gaziantep FK

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 13 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Gaziantep FKMohamed Bayo
79'RizesporQazim Laci (assist: V. Mihaila)
81'RizesporAli Sowe

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rizespor		Gaziantep FK
24	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
480	Passes	322
395	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rizespor 1.73 · Gaziantep FK 1.14. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rizespor 24 · Gaziantep FK 10; on target 7 and 6.
Rizespor kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

O. Ergun→

4.67

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Rizespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Rizespor, 1.14 for Gaziantep FK.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Rizespor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,294 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rizespor to win53.5%

Draw24.5%

Gaziantep FK to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rizespor lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time42.0%

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Rizespor ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Gaziantep FK ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1293 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rizespor: at least 14Actual: 13
Gaziantep FK: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Rizespor: at least 5Actual: 9
Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rizespor score1.73

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.14

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.8%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.