Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Kayserispor–Fenerbahçe

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FenerbahçeN. Kanté (assist: Talisca)
60'FenerbahçeTalisca (assist: A. Brown)
62'FenerbahçeN. Dorgeles
87'FenerbahçeTalisca (assist: K. Akturkoglu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kayserispor		Fenerbahçe
11	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
357	Passes	555
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kayserispor 0.90 · Fenerbahçe 2.01. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Kayserispor 11 · Fenerbahçe 18; on target 3 and 7.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Yilmaz→

3.36

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.3%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Kayserispor, 2.08 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 1,290 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kayserispor to win14.4%

Draw21.3%

Fenerbahçe to win64.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Kayserispor lead at half-time9.9%

Level at half-time38.9%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time51.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Kayserispor ahead or level48.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead90.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kayserispor: at least 13Actual: 19
Fenerbahçe: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Kayserispor: at least 4Actual: 4
Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kayserispor score0.90

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score2.01

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%0–210.9%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.