NEC Nijmegen–Bodo/Glimt

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 19 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet (assist: J. Hauge)
44'Bodo/GlimtA. Helmersen (penalty)
50'Bodo/GlimtH. Aleesami (assist: P. Berg)
85'NEC NijmegenClement Bischoff (assist: D. Tadić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		Bodo/Glimt
22	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
583	Passes	270
496	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 1.43 · Bodo/Glimt 1.91. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 22 · Bodo/Glimt 8; on target 6 and 4.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (69%).

Unavailable players

NEC Nijmegen

K. Ogawaout · Head Injury
P. Sandlerout · injury
P. Schuursout · Knee Injury
S. Ouaissaout · Muscle Injury

Bodo/Glimt

A. Mikkelsenout · Groin Injury
H. Evjenout · Knee Injury
I. Sjongout · injury
J. Gundersenout · Thigh Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

F. Letexier→

3.95

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

104

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.91 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,337 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win29.3%

Draw21.6%

Bodo/Glimt to win49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.43

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.91

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.4%1–29.2%0–17.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.