Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Fatih Karagümrük–Rizespor

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'Fatih KaragümrükSerginho (assist: D. Verde)
70'RizesporAli Sowe
87'Fatih KaragümrükS. Babicka (assist: T. Çukur)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Rizespor
10	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
330	Passes	558
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.21 · Rizespor 1.39. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 10 · Rizespor 11; on target 5 and 2.
Rizespor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Y. Arslan→

5.19

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Rizespor to win”. Second comes “Fatih Karagümrük to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.44 for Rizespor.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,280 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win31.7%

Draw27.8%

Rizespor to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time45.5%

Rizespor lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Rizespor ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 12Actual: 15
Rizespor: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4
Rizespor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.21

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rizespor score1.39

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.6%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.