Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Kasımpaşa–Kayserispor

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'KasımpaşaAdrian Benedyczak (assist: F. Diabate)
66'KasımpaşaAndreas Gianniotis (assist: Rodrigo Becao)
90'KasımpaşaCafu · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kasımpaşa		Kayserispor
8	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	1
1	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	10
3	Offsides	5
38%	Possession	62%
310	Passes	495
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kasımpaşa 1.51 · Kayserispor 1.15. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Kasımpaşa 8 · Kayserispor 4; on target 3 and 1.
Kayserispor kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Turkmen→

4.00

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Kasımpaşa to win”. Second comes “Kayserispor to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Kasımpaşa, 1.17 for Kayserispor.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kasımpaşa to win43.4%

Draw27.8%

Kayserispor to win28.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time45.7%

Kayserispor lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Kayserispor ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1275 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kasımpaşa: at least 12Actual: 18
Kayserispor: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 1
Kayserispor: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.51

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kayserispor score1.15

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.9%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.