Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Göztepe

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'GöztepeN. Miroshi (penalty)
68'GöztepeMalcom Bokele (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Göztepe
11	Shots	9
0	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
369	Passes	227
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.02 · Göztepe 1.38. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 11 · Göztepe 9; on target 0 and 3.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

B. Kolak→

4.91

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.31 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (X2 — draw or Göztepe win).
These values were computed from 1,276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win28.3%

Draw29.6%

Göztepe to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time46.2%

Göztepe lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1275 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 9Actual: 14
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 6
Göztepe: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.02

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.38

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–111.6%1–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.