Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Beşiktaş

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Sekou Koita · red card
56'BeşiktaşJ. Olaitan
67'BeşiktaşO. Kokcu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Beşiktaş
11	Shots	24
4	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	10
2	Offsides	4
31%	Possession	69%
218	Passes	493
154	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.97 · Beşiktaş 1.74. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 11 · Beşiktaş 24; on target 4 and 7.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Y. Kol→

5.16

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.92 for Beşiktaş.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (X2 — draw or Beşiktaş win).
These values were computed from 1,267 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win17.4%

Draw23.3%

Beşiktaş to win59.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time41.7%

Beşiktaş lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Beşiktaş ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1266 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 6
Beşiktaş: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 6
Beşiktaş: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score0.97

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.74

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–211.0%0–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.