Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Trabzonspor–Rizespor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Papara Park, Trabzon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'TrabzonsporPaul Onuachu (assist: O. Zubkov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Rizespor
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
461	Passes	366
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.76 · Rizespor 1.20. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Trabzonspor 10 · Rizespor 11; on target 3 and 3.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

C. Altay→

3.00

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Trabzonspor, 1.18 for Rizespor.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Trabzonspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,263 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win52.0%

Draw24.8%

Rizespor to win23.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Trabzonspor lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time40.2%

Rizespor lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Trabzonspor ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Rizespor ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Trabzonspor: at least 12Actual: 11
Rizespor: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Trabzonspor: at least 4Actual: 8
Rizespor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.76

Attack: Trabzonspor score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rizespor score1.20

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.7%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.