Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Kocaelispor–Konyaspor

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'KocaelisporS. Dursun
86'KonyasporBlaž Kramer
90'KonyasporJackson Muleka (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Konyaspor
10	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
313	Passes	448
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.29 · Konyaspor 0.98. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Kocaelispor 10 · Konyaspor 19; on target 3 and 7.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

C. Aydin→

4.38

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Kocaelispor, 0.99 for Konyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win41.5%

Draw30.4%

Konyaspor to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	4

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kocaelispor lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time45.9%

Konyaspor lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Konyaspor ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 21
Konyaspor: at least 12Actual: 4

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 8
Konyaspor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.29

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Konyaspor score0.98

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.5%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.