Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Fatih Karagümrük–Fenerbahçe

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Fatih KaragümrükB. Elmaz
45'Fatih KaragümrükSerginho (assist: I. Lichnovsky)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Fenerbahçe
9	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	14
2	Offsides	3
32%	Possession	68%
295	Passes	600
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 0.81 · Fenerbahçe 2.09. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 9 · Fenerbahçe 16; on target 5 and 3.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Turkmen→

3.89

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Fatih Karagümrük, 2.06 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win13.2%

Draw21.2%

Fenerbahçe to win65.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time15.7%

Level at half-time38.6%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time45.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level54.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead84.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 16
Fenerbahçe: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 2
Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 14

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score0.81

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score2.09

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.8%1–210.9%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.