Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Konyaspor–Kasımpaşa

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'KonyasporJackson Muleka (assist: Yhoan Andzouana)
31'KasımpaşaAdrian Benedyczak (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Konyaspor		Kasımpaşa
11	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
471	Passes	262
378	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Konyaspor 1.47 · Kasımpaşa 1.12. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Konyaspor 11 · Kasımpaşa 6; on target 4 and 2.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

U. Ozturk→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Konyaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Konyaspor, 0.95 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — Konyaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,255 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Konyaspor to win51.1%

Draw27.3%

Kasımpaşa to win21.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	19

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Konyaspor lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time45.2%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Konyaspor ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1254 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Konyaspor: at least 12Actual: 13
Kasımpaşa: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Konyaspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Kasımpaşa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Konyaspor score1.47

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.12

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.0%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.