Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Beşiktaş–Galatasaray

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'GalatasarayV. Osimhen (assist: Leroy Sané)
62'GalatasarayLeroy Sané · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beşiktaş		Galatasaray
24	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
510	Passes	345
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beşiktaş 1.43 · Galatasaray 1.49. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Beşiktaş 24 · Galatasaray 12; on target 7 and 4.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

O. Ergun→

4.10

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “Galatasaray to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Beşiktaş, 1.49 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beşiktaş to win37.6%

Draw26.3%

Galatasaray to win36.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Beşiktaş lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time41.5%

Galatasaray lead at half-time40.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Beşiktaş ahead or level60.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1251 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beşiktaş: at least 11Actual: 10
Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Beşiktaş: at least 4Actual: 8
Galatasaray: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.43

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.43 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Galatasaray score1.49

Attack: Galatasaray score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.49 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.